Personal and Household

Retirement projection calculator

Whether the money lasts, and what the shortfall looks like if it does not.

Shortfall·
Projected at retirement
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Capital needed
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Years to retirement
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How it works

What this is actually calculating.

The projection grows what you have plus what you keep adding until the year you stop, then prices the income you asked for: inflated to your retirement date and discounted back across the years you expect to spend it. Both figures land on the retirement date, and the difference between them is the gap.

A single projection is not a plan. It is one path through one set of assumptions, and the assumption doing the most work is the return you entered. Change it by a point and the answer moves more than most people expect, which is the real lesson rather than the headline number.

What moves the number

The parts that decide the answer.

Contributions land at the end of each month

The projection adds your contribution after that month's growth, which is the conservative convention and the one most plan statements use. Withdrawals are treated the same way, the first arriving a year after you retire rather than on the day. Both choices understate slightly rather than flatter the result.

Other income is assumed to keep pace with inflation

That holds for Social Security, which is adjusted every year. It does not hold for a fixed pension or a lease with no escalator, and the difference is large: treating a flat forty thousand a year as though it rose with prices understates the capital required by about a million dollars over a thirty year retirement. If yours does not adjust, enter a lower figure, or leave it out and model it separately.

Averages hide sequence risk

A bad decade at the start of retirement does far more damage than the same decade at the end, even with an identical average return. This calculator uses a steady return and cannot show that.

The income target matters more than the return

People spend a lot of energy on the return assumption and very little on what they actually intend to spend. The second number is the one you control and the one you can verify.

Social Security is entered by you

Nothing here estimates your benefit. Use the Social Security calculator or your statement, then bring the figure back to this one.

Questions

Before you rely on it.

Does this run a Monte Carlo simulation?

No. It is a straight line projection at a fixed return. It is a sanity check, not a probability analysis.

Is inflation included?

Yes, on the income side. Your target income is increased each year by the inflation rate you enter.

What withdrawal rate does it assume?

None. You give it the income and the number of years and it prices that stream, rather than applying a percentage to a balance. It does not report how long money lasts; it reports the capital the income you asked for would take.

Before you rely on it

About this calculator.

An illustration, not advice

This is an educational illustration, not investment, tax, or legal advice, and not a recommendation or projection of any particular result. It uses only the assumptions you enter.

Real returns are not this smooth

Where a return is involved it is treated as constant, which no real portfolio is. Actual results will differ, and a sequence of poor early returns can change an outcome substantially even when the average holds.

Nothing you type leaves your browser

Every calculation runs on your own machine. Nothing you enter is transmitted or stored, and none of it reaches me unless you ask for a PDF and give me your details.

Talk to your CPA and attorney before relying on any of it.See all twelve calculators